Tonight on ESPN at 8:30 pm eastern time in tropical Secaucus, New Jersey the NBA will hold the annual draft lottery. This installment of JustSON the Numbers will look into the history of this event, which began in 1985 after the Houston Rockets allegedly tanked games during the 1984 year so they would be able to select Hakeem Olajuwon (wasn't there a guy from North Carolina that came out that year?).The first incarnation of the lottery had the non-playoff teams all with an equal chance at getting the #1 pick. In the '85 lottery the New York Knicks got the top spot (people to this day still swear this was rigged) and the Golden State Warriors who had the worst record got the 7th and final lottery selection. In 1987 the NBA decided to hold the lottery for only the 3 worst teams and the remaining non-playoff teams would select in order of finish (this ensured that the worst team would secure no lower than the 4th selection, the second worst would get no lower than the 5th, etc., that is still how the lottery process works).
In 1990 the NBA changed the lottery system again. At the time there were 11 non-playoff teams and the worst team had the best odds with 11 chances, second worst had 10 chances and so on. Then again in 1994 the lottery was altered when the worst team had a 25% chance of winning and the best non-playoff team had .5% chance of winning with the percentage odds increasing the worse the team was (unless there were any ties).
Since 1994 when the NBA changed the lottery to give the worst team an even better chance at getting the top pick, it hasn't always happened. Actually it's only happened 3 times, in 1996 with the Philadelphia 76ers (they were actually 2nd worst but the Memphis Grizzlies were barred from getting the 1st pick in '96 and '97 because they were an expansion team), 2003 the Cleveland Cavaliers (they were tied for the worst record this season) got the top spot and then again the following year when the Orlando Magic were first to select.
It doesn't get any better for the second worst team, the only times they've gotten the 1st overall was 1994 with the Milwaukee Bucks (they were tied for 2nd worst) and again in 1997 when the San Antonio Spurs (again because of the Grizzlies) got the first ping-pong ball drawn. If you're keeping score at home that is 5 out of 14 (about 36%) times since 1994 that the worst or second worst teams got the #1 overall.
Teams finishing 3rd worst overall have actually had as good a chance as the worst overall teams to get the first pick. From 1998 to 2001 it happened three times, 1998 the powerhouse Los Angeles Clippers, 1999 the Chicago Bulls and 2001 with the Washington Wizards. 8 of the 14 (57%) lotteries since 1994 have had one of the top three worst teams take home the 1st selection. Oddly enough the 4th worst team has never won the lottery since '94, that's good for us Oklahoma City Thunder haters since they finished 4th worst this season and have an 11.9% chance to win the lottery.
Since the 2005 lottery no team that has finished in the top 4 worst teams has won the lottery, '05 was the 6th worst Milwaukee Bucks, '06 the 5th worst Toronto Raptors, '07 the 7th worst Portland Trail Blazers and then last year the 9th worst Chicago Bulls who had only a 1.7% chance to win the lottery.
The Orlando Magic are the only team that has won the lottery three times since it began in 1985. Multiple teams have won it twice. Below is a list of teams that have won the lottery and who they selected.
3 Times: Orlando Magic ('92 Shaquille O'Neal, '93 Chris Webber and '04 Dwight Howard)
2 Times: Chicago Bulls ('99 Elton Brand and '08 Derrick Rose)
Cleveland Cavaliers ('86 Brad Daugherty and '03 LeBron James)
Los Angeles Clippers ('88 Danny Manning and '98 Michael Olowokandi)
Milwaukee Bucks ('94 Glenn Robinson and '05 Andrew Bogut)
New Jersey Nets ('90 Derrick Coleman and '00 Kenyon Martin)
San Antonio Spurs ('87 David Robinson and '97 Tim Duncan)
1 Time: Charlotte Hornets ('91 Larry Johnson)
Golden State Warriors ('95 Joe Smith)
Houston Rockets ('02 Yao Ming)
New York Knicks ('85 Patrick Ewing)
Philadelphia 76ers ('96 Allen Iverson)
Portland Trail Blazers ('07 Greg Oden)
Sacramento Kings ('89 Pervis Ellison)
Toronto Raptors ('06 Andrea Bargnani)
Washington Wizards ('01 Kwame Brown)
In conclusion it appears there is a 57% chance that either the Kings, Wizards or Clippers will end up with the right to select Blake Griffin #1 overall, and that the Thunder will not get the 1st pick. If Oklahoma City does get the 1st pick this will further add to the speculation that Clayton Bennett and the rest of the Thunder ownership group sold their soles to the devil.
If anyone has any requests for this column let us know. I don't discriminate, no matter the sport or the stat.
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