May 20, 2009

JustSON the Numbers: NBA #1 Picks

Since the Los Angeles Clippers were the winner of the NBA draft lottery last night I thought today would be a good time to look into how every #1 overall draft pick has fared in the Association since the beginning of the lottery back in 1985.

Locking down the number 1 overall pick in the NBA draft doesn't always mean you are getting a superstar, but it seems more of a sure thing than at least the NFL draft. So far two players since the '85 draft have been elected to the Hall of Fame, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson, while a few others like Pervis Ellison, who only appeared in 474 games over 11 seasons (about 43 games a year out of 82 possible because of injury) and Danny Manning (883 games over 15 seasons, about 59 games a year because of injury) never really got going. Others like Michael Olowokandi and Kwame Brown never made a successful transition into the NBA and have struggled.

11 of the 24 (46%) 1st overall picks since '85 have gone on to win the Rookie of the Year award (or at least share it). Six times the 1st overall has won the MVP award (David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan twice and this year LeBron James), and 1st overall picks have netted 92 All-Star game appearances between them. Also 1st overall picks have been a part of 11 NBA Championship teams with 6 winning Finals MVP (Shaq 3 times and Tim Duncan 3 times).

Anymore in the NBA there doesn't seem to be any defined positions (Center, Power Forward, Small Forward, Shooting Guard, Point Guard), now it seems you have your Center/Power Forward position, Small Forward/Shooting Guard and Shooting Guard/Point Guard. I figured I would classify the players in the 3 previously mentioned categories because it isn't easy to define what position they were when they came into the league. Based on the 3 categories there have been 18 Center/Power Forwards drafted 1st overall since '85 with 4 being from the Small Forward/Shooting Guard mold and the other 2 being Shooting Guard/Point Guards.
With that being said it looks more and more likely that the Clippers will pick Blake Griffin with the first selection. This isn't good news for Griffin because the Clippers have a very bad history of lottery picks (Darius Miles, Benoit Benjamin, Yaroslav Korolev....exactly).
Either way it plays out the top pick is gonna get his shot because the Clippers need everything.

If anyone has any requests for this column let us know. I don't discriminate, no matter the sport or the stat.

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